How to Keep Your Business From Going Down Like a Failed Expedition

In 1845, Sir John Franklin led two ships, the HMS Erebus and the HMS Terror, into the icy embrace of the Arctic, seeking the Northwest Passage. The expedition, sailing on ambition and hope, ended in tragedy — none of the 129 men aboard returned. For the full story, books like Frozen in Time or Erebus: One Ship, Two Epic Voyages, and the Greatest Naval Mystery of All Time are must reads. But while The Franklin Expedition remains one of history's most poignant lessons in preparation, leadership, and humility—it is FAR from the only one. To this day, and forever in time, expeditions will fail. As will startups. (70% of new businesses fail before year five!)

So, let’s take a look across global expeditions and see how the lessons learned can help guide your own business through treacherous waters.

1. Lack of Clear Objectives

Most businesses are built on good ideas. Great ideas, even! But without clear goals, their development efforts can become unfocused, wasting resources and opportunities. Similarly, the history books are filled with stories of explorers who set out through treacherous terrain only to see their expeditions end in aimless wandering, inefficient use of resources, dissatisfaction, and death (eternal dissatisfaction). The Burke and Wills expedition across Australia in 1860-1861, for example, lacked clear, practical objectives for their journey. The result? Fractured teams wandering the outback and only one team member surviving.

Now, what are clear objectives in the first place?

Objectives are specific targets within a goal. They are concrete, measurable steps that need to be taken to achieve the goal. Objectives are often short-term and include detailed attributes that make them SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound).

Aren’t those also goals?

Not quite. Goals are broad, general intentions or desired outcomes that are often qualitative and long-term. They set the direction and intent but are usually not as specific as objectives. Goals provide a bigger, overarching target for the organization or individual.

For example:

• Goal: Increase the company's market presence.

• Objective: Achieve a 15% market share within the next two years by launching three new products and increasing the advertising budget by 20%.

Or:

• Goal: Improve health and fitness.

• Objective: Lose 10 pounds in three months through a regimen of dieting and exercising for 30 minutes daily.

In these examples, the goals set the general direction for improvement or growth, while the objectives define specific actions and parameters that guide how to achieve these broader ambitions.

Without these clear objectives, how could a business ever track progress, pivot when necessary, and make informed decisions towards a common direction? When conditions change and times get hard (which they will!) a chorus of “What if we…?” will drown out the whisper of an unclear objective. Next up, dissatisfaction and death.

Explorer’s Wisdom: Set specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) objectives. They are a cliché because they work. Regularly review and adjust these objectives as needed to stay on track.

2. Underestimating Resources Needed

Misjudging the resources (time, money, personnel) required for a project can lead to setbacks and failure. In expeditions, the history books are filled with tragic tales of those who underestimated the resources needed (supplies, funding, team capabilities). For the Franklin Expedition, the expedition's failure to adequately prepare for the Arctic’s brutal conditions was a critical error. Similarly, businesses often underestimate the complexity and volatility of their operating environment. Market dynamics, consumer behavior, and technological advancements can shift like the Arctic ice, creating unforeseen challenges.

Resource estimation involves predicting the materials, time, finances, and human resources required to complete a project successfully. This process helps project managers allocate the correct amount of resources, avoiding wastage and shortages that could impede project progress.

Key Steps in Resource Estimation

1. Define Project Scope: Clearly defining the project scope is the first step in resource estimation. Understanding the project's boundaries and deliverables helps in identifying what resources are necessary. This includes detailed descriptions of tasks and expected outcomes.

2. Break Down the Work: Utilizing techniques such as the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) allows businesses to decompose the project into smaller, manageable components. This breakdown makes it easier to assign and estimate resources for each specific task.

3. Historical Analysis: Many businesses look at similar past projects to gauge the resources needed. This historical data provides a baseline for resource estimation and helps in forecasting potential challenges and requirements.

4. Expert Consultation: It’s pretty simple. Explorers of all eras have consulted with experts or team members who have experience with similar objectives. This engagement can often provide insights into resource needs and practical realities.

5. Use of Estimation Software: Businesses often use project management and resource estimation software. These tools use algorithms and databases of historical data to provide more accurate and data-driven resource estimates.

6. Risk Assessment: Identifying potential risks and incorporating contingencies in the resource plan is crucial. This includes estimating additional resources that may be required to manage risks and ensure the project's success.

Best Practices for Effective Resource Estimation

• Be Realistic: Estimates should be practical and based on realistic expectations of resource availability and task complexity.

• Continuous Revision: Resource estimation is not a one-time task. It should be revisited and revised throughout the project lifecycle to adapt to changes and new insights.

• Stakeholder Involvement: Engaging all relevant stakeholders in the estimation process ensures that all perspectives are considered, enhancing the accuracy of the estimates.

• Documentation and Tracking: Documenting all estimates and tracking actual resource usage against them can help in refining estimation techniques over time.

Explorer’s Wisdom: Conduct thorough planning and budgeting, including contingency reserves. Comprehensive market research, scenario planning, and risk management are also essential to navigate successfully. Like great explorers, you should regularly review resource consumption and adjust plans accordingly.

3. Failure to Adapt to New Information or Conditions

Here’s where the dance of expeditions and business development comes in. Yes, you need a clear objective and thorough plan. However, rigidity in strategy can result in missed opportunities or continued investment in failing initiatives. Inability to adapt to unexpected conditions (weather, terrain, political situation) can compromise the mission. While not an expedition, the Titanic's failure in 1912 to heed ice warnings and adapt its course or speed is a tragic example of the consequences of ignoring new information and conditions.

Explorer’s Wisdom: Foster a culture of flexibility and continuous learning. Implement agile methodologies to quickly pivot strategies based on new information.

4. Neglecting Risk Management

SWOT analysis is a cliche these days. But like setting SMART goals, its become a cliché because it works. Overlooking potential risks, weaknesses, and threats can result in significant setbacks or losses. Failing to anticipate and prepare for potential dangers can endanger the team and mission. Perhaps nowhere is this more visible than Mt. Everest, where every year climbers underestimate condition variability and overestimate personal ability, leading to problems. The Franklin Expedition overlooked minor but crucial details, from the quality of their canned food to the durability of their steam engines.

In business, neglecting the small details can lead to catastrophic outcomes. Whether it's the fine print in a contract, the nuances of customer feedback, or the incremental improvements in a product, these details can be the difference between success and failure.

Explorer’s Wisdom: Conduct thorough risk assessments and develop comprehensive risk management plans. Regularly review and update these plans as the project or business progresses.

5. Over-reliance on Past Successes

How many products and brands have faded out of existence? Assuming that strategies or products that were successful in the past will continue to be successful can lead to stagnation and missed opportunities for innovation. The same holds true for companies thinking that something that didn’t work in the past won’t work in a present and changed environment.

Assuming that strategies that worked in one context will work in another can lead to failure when conditions differ. The British expeditions in the search for the Northwest Passage often over-relied on naval techniques unsuited for polar conditions, leading to repeated failures until the adoption of Inuit survival strategies.

Explorer’s Wisdom: Check out this Harvard Business Review article (where they deem the companies who break free from success traps “explorers.”) Encourage innovation and experimentation. Conduct post-project reviews to learn from both successes and failures, and apply these lessons to future projects.

6. Poor Communication and Team Dynamics

Miscommunication and team conflicts can derail projects and lead to missed opportunities, inefficiency, and higher turnover rates. On an expedition, such issues can be downright fatal. The mutiny on the Bounty in 1789 was partly due to poor communication and leadership by Lieutenant William Bligh, leading to a breakdown in team dynamics (and great movies for us to enjoy!) Once Franklin died in the Arctic, the chain of command broke down, leading to confusion and despair among the crew.

Effective leadership is just as vital in business. A strong leader charts the course, inspires the crew, and makes tough decisions in stormy seas. They foster a culture of trust, innovation, and resilience. Without such leadership, even the most promising ventures can flounder.

Explorer’s Wisdom: Invest in team-building and communication training. Establish clear communication channels and protocols. Ensure team members understand their roles and the importance of collaboration.

7. Ignoring Local Knowledge and Conditions

Overlooking the importance of local market conditions, cultural differences, and regulatory environments can lead to failed expansion efforts. Failing to consider local geography, climate, and cultural factors can lead to logistical challenges and conflict. The failure of the Donner Party in 1846-47, which resulted in tragedy and cannibalism, was partly due to the pioneers' disregard for local advice and conditions in their attempt to find a shortcut across the Sierra Nevada.

No one wants to see your business have to resort to cannibalism!

However, making the equivalent mistake in disregarding the advice of mentors, industry experts, and market data just might make your employees hungry. Success in the modern marketplace demands humility and the wisdom to listen. Whether it's feedback on a new product or strategies for market expansion, the input of those with experience is a treasure map worth following.

My most profound experiences in expedition planning and business have come by listening to and becoming an ally of Indigenous people around the world. Don’t let yourself become stuck in one perspective, one mindset. If you become a student of biomimicry, you’ll see that even nature itself can be the perfect mentor, guide, and measure of success.

Explorer’s Wisdom: Conduct thorough market and environmental research. Engage with local experts and communities to gain insights and foster relationships. Establish practices with every endeavour that include seeking and evaluating other perspectives.